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The number of blank voyages has soared! 149 voyages will be cancelled in the next five weeks

Time:2023-01-16 Publisher:Kevin Num:3367

It is reported that the latest data from Xeneta shows that before the Chinese New Year, the number of flights cancelled by shipping companies on the route from Asia to the West Coast of the United States was more than seven times that of the same period in 2019, which clearly indicates that the weak demand has weakened the container shipping industry.

According to Xeneta, this may be just the tip of the iceberg, because the current data only count the blank sailing before the holiday announced by the carrier before January 6, and there is still some time before the Chinese New Year.

The agency pointed out that in the four weeks before the holiday, the shipping company canceled the capacity of 220000 TEU on the route, which was a significant increase from 30000 TEU in the same period in 2019. Other major routes are also affected. 

The number of blank flights on the Asia-Northern Europe trade route has increased by 715% compared with the same period in 2019, and is currently 226000 TEU; The number of blank voyages from the Far East to the United States East increased by 340% to 140000 TEU.

Peter Sand, chief analyst of Xeneta, said: "This really shows that the current level of demand in the industry is very low. In normal years, as shippers replenish inventory, we often see that there are few empty ships before this important Chinese festival. 

So, this is a worrying development for shipping companies, and may be a bad omen for the next year."

The transportation capacity of the week during the Spring Festival holiday also decreased, and the currently announced cancellation capacity of the Asian-West route is 57970TEU. Sand pointed out that these figures might increase before January 22.

In addition, Xeneta's analysis shows that the number of blank voyages last year was actually much more. However, as Sand pointed out, last year was a special case. "The current level is about half of the capacity cancelled around the new year of 2022. 

But, this is due to the huge pressure on the global supply chain at that time, congestion and lack of equipment leading to the derailment of the navigation schedule. In some cases, the shipping company was forced to extend the round-trip time for several weeks, making it impossible for the ship to return before the next scheduled departure time."

"The situation is quite different this year. This is an obvious problem of shrinking demand. We can see this from the fact that shipping companies are competing for business and shipping costs are falling, rather than congestion, epidemic or any other 'structural' challenges."

Besides, according to the flight cancellation tracking data released by Drury, 149 of the 707 scheduled flights from the second week to the sixth week of 2023 were announced to be cancelled, with a cancellation rate of 21%, among the major routes across the Pacific, Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean. 

Of these, 58% of the blank flights will take place on the eastbound route across the Pacific, 31% on the route from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean, and 11% on the westbound route across the Atlantic.

During this period, the three major alliances announced the cancellation of 117 voyages in total, including 54 cancellations by THE Alliance, 46 cancellations by Ocean Alliance and 17 cancellations by 2M Alliance.

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